All eyes are riveted on the India-US trade agreement with emphasis on Logistics and Business impact taking centrstage. Everyone has pinned hopes on how things will unfold. India has reached a trade agreement with the US and asserted that they have protected and not touched the sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy.
The trade deal will boost labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, leather, marine products, and gems and jewellery. PM Narendra Modi worries about securing the interests of the animal-husbandry and dairy farmers. PM Modi secured a strong deal for India, better than offers made to some competing countries.
Trump and Modi have announced that they will finalise a deal and Trump will slash tariffs on Indian imports from 50% to 18%. Trump has gone on to claim that India will import oil, coal, to the tune of $500 billion from the US. The India-US trade deal is unlikely to lead to a near-term reduction in India’s imports of Russian crude oil. Their supplies are going to stop from sanctioned entities such as Rosneft and Lukoil.
Russia’s share of India’s crude imports fell to 33.7% in April–2025 from 37.9% a year earlier, while the US share rose to 8.1% from 4.6%. Although Russia’s share of India’s crude imports appears high in recent years. It stood at just about 2% before the Ukraine war in 2022. Prior to that, about two-thirds of India’s crude oil and petroleum product imports came from West Asia. While Trump has said India will increase oil purchases from the US and possibly Venezuela. Experts say Indian refiners may turn to West Asian suppliers to replace reduced Russian imports.
India Crude Oil Imports
India’s crude oil imports mean a lot in the current scenario as India has become a hot potato. Energy expert Narendra Taneja said that price drives India’s oil sourcing and geography has got nothing to do with it. We are going to increase our imports for data centres, aircraft and its components and nuclear equipment. Given India’s demand for coking coal, chips and aircraft, some of the imports are already taking place. In return for this, lower duty access to US for Indian goods will help the labour-intensive sectors and MSMEs for long.
The government has not asked Indian refiners to stop buying Russian oil and will allow a wind-down period for ongoing purchases. Headlines do not win trade deals -Resolution, timelines, and enforceability decide the outcome. India also agreed to halt buying Russian oil, in return for US immediately cutting tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%. He also hinted at India buying over $500bn worth of US energy, technology, agricultural goods, coal, and other products. Thereafter, it will be shifting oil purchases towards US and Venezuela.
India’s long-standing protection of sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy, as well as regulated imports is a priority. The pledge to purchase over $500bn of US goods also lacks credibility. This is because India currently imports less than $50bn annually from US. So the $500bn figure is spread over many years. The question stands tall now- Has India managed to secure the ‘father of all deals’ ?
Challenges for Indian Businesses in Cross-Border Trade: While both the countries are to sign the trade deal and are working on the final nuances. The stalemate in ties has finally ended, paving way for the two big world economies to resume normalcy in business ties and commitment.
Challenges in Cross-Border Trade:
We understand that challenges in cross-border trade are not easy to tackle. The US is India’s single largest trading partner, and the 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration had hit exporters. Trump’s Truth Social Post spoke of several aspects to the deal. This included what he claimed was a commitment to stopping Russian crude. He also emphasised on buying $500 billion worth of American goods.
While a trade deal remains to be signed, and final nuances are being worked out, the stalemate in ties has finally ended, paving the way for two big world economies to resume normalcy in trade ties. With an 18% tariff rate, India’s exports are back to being competitive.
For India, the deal matters less for the headline concessions and even more for what it beckons and signals. With the new tariff rates taking effect soon, export erosion will ease as India regains competitiveness in the US market. This deal will effectively cap further damage and restore predictability. It will permit exporters to price, strategize and retain market share rather than bleed slowly.
Finally, it will push Indian exporters to move up the value chain. This tariff relief will push Indian firms towards scale, compliance and higher value manufacturing. It will rather operate on pure price arbitrage. The bottom line is that the deal does not just recover lost exports – it re-anchors India in the US market – durable, strategic basis, which is more valuable over the medium term.
Impact of the India–US Trade Deal on Global Import–Export and Logistics
There are a number of implications of the US-India trade deal as a lot is happening all around with the recent advances in the modern world. As part of the newly announced trade pact, US President Donald Trump claimed that India would halt buying Russian oil. “We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to purchase much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.” Trump posted on Truth Social. Meanwhile, Russia has maintained that it received no official communication from India on this matter. Data from Russia show Russia’s share of India’s crude imports falling to 33.7% between April and November 2025 from 37.9% in the same period last year.
About the same time. share rose to 8.1 per cent from 46%. India will diversify its energy sources as a strategy ?amid changing global circumstances and ensure energy security for its citizens. India will diversify its energy sources as a strategy ?amid changing global circumstances and ensure energy security for its citizens,
India’s oil ministry and state-run companies are preparing for a significant increase in US crude oil and natural gas imports, aiming to boost bilateral trade. As Russian supplies decline, Indian refiners may absorb higher freight costs to meet rising domestic demand.
State-run companies are preparing for a surge in US crude oil and gas imports to boost bilateral trade, even as declining Russian supplies raise freight costs.
Conclusion
According to Oil Price data cited in report, Venezuelan heavy crude is presently trading at around $51 per barrel. The study further added that the actual benefit would rely on several factors, including the size of the discount compared with Brent crude, longer shipping routes, and additional time and insurance costs associated with sourcing oil from Venezuela.
The India-US trade deal snips tariffs on almost 60% of Indian exports to the US, lowering reciprocal duties to 18% from 50%. The agreement is expected to deliver a vivid boost for exporters while supporting GDP growth and investor sentiment. Sectors ranging from garments, leather, footwear, carpets, shrimps and gems and jewellery are all set to benefit, as Indian products will become more competitive in the US market. For garments, the 18% levy is marginally lower than the 20% faced by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, the jewellery and gems sector is also waiting for the deal’s fine print.
With tariffs now rolled back, the uncertainty has also eased sharply, “We estimate a boost of around 0.2 percentage point of GDP (annualised) if the new lower tariffs are enforced.
Falcon 18 Imports Pvt Ltd (Falcon India) is a New Delhi-based logistics and customs clearing agent providing, air/sea freight, and warehousing services organisation. Key contact details include phone +91-9311595648 and email [email protected].
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