US Agreement Impact on Russian Crude

The US Agreement impact on Russian crude imports seems to have started working now. India imported crude worth $2.7 billion from Russia in Dec 2025. It is the lowest monthly import from the country since Feb last year. It has started reflecting the impact of the US imposing sanctions on Russian oil majors, Rosneft and Lukoil. These have been the two major contributors to oil exports to India. The US announced sanctions on the two companies on Oct 22. Thereafter, the US set Nov 21 as the deadline for all dealings with them to be wound down.

As per data shared by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, December supplies of Russian oil were nearly 27% lower compared with imports worth $3.7 billion a month earlier in Nov 2025, and over 15% lower than the $3.2 billion imported during the corresponding month in 2024. Emails were sent to oil marketing companies like Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum and Reliance Industries. It was just to seek details of their purchases from Russia but could not elicit any response. Russia, however, remained the biggest supplier of crude to India in 2025-26. It contributed 24% of the $ 11.4 billion worth of oil imported in December. The other major suppliers included Iraq $2.4 billion, Saudi Arabia ($1.8 billion), the UAE ($1.7 billion) and the US ($0.6 billion).

During the three quarters (April to Dec) of FY 2025, India imported crude worth $105.1 billion from 34 different geographies. Russia emerged as the biggest supplier at $33.1 billion, accounting for 31.5% of the total crude oil exported. The period referred to is FY2025. During this period, India imported oil worth $109.3 billion. Russia’s share of India’s oil imports was $39.9 billion.This share represents 36.5% of India’s total oil imports.

US Imports Increase Fiscal Profit Margins

The US imports increase has stunned the entire world. Since the beginning of the new year, the US has seemed to be in a jiffy. The share of the US imports increased both in December and during the current phase of FY26. Analysts have compared it with the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year. The US supplied $0.6 billion worth of crude to India in Dec 2025. The imports have shot up from $0.4 billion a year earlier. This has taken total exports to India to $8.2 billion between April and Dec 2025. An increase of 7.8% from $5 billion in the previous fiscal sounds unbelievable.

After announcing a trade deal with India last week, US President Donald Trump said that New Delhi had agreed to reduce imports of Russian oil to zero. The Narendra Modi govt did not respond to the assertion specifically, however maintained that ensuring the energy of 1.4 billion Indians was paramount.

The Kremlin stated that India is free to source oil globally. There cannot be new developments in diversifying its crude suppliers. This comes after US President Trump claimed Prime Minister Modi had agreed to cease Russian oil imports for American and Venezuelan crude. Experts have suggested a complete substitution is unlikely due to differing oil grades and volumes.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told while responding to questions “We, along with all other international energy experts, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India. India has always purchased these products from other countries too. Therefore, we see nothing new here,” he said when asked about US President Donald Trump’s claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to stop buying Russian oil and switch to the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.

Is Russian Crude better than US’ Venezuelan oil

Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund, said that Indian refiners cannot fully stop importing Russian crude. A day earlier, Peskov said that Russia had not received any statements from India about stopping Russian oil purchases. Private business radio Kommersant FM noted that, unlike President Trump, Prime Minister Modi did not mention any agreement to stop Russian oil imports. The American shale oil which they export is light grades, quite similar to gas condensate. Russia, on the other hand, supplies relatively heavy, sulphur – rich Urals.

This means India will need to blend US crude with other grades. It incurs additional costs, meaning a simple substitution is not possible,” he said.

“Russia usually exports 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day to the country. America won’t be able to cover that volume. During the corresponding period in FY2025, India imported oil worth $109.3 billion, of which Russia accounted for $39.9 billion, or 36.5% Russia cut production by 1 million barrels per day.

This also led to prices rising upto $120 per barrel, and the US set an all-time high for gasoline and diesel prices, Yushkov recalled. Last year, Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on India which was among the highest in the world. Trump also included 25 per cent levies for its purchases of Russian energy. India buys 88 per cent of crude oil, which is then converted into fuels like petrol and diesel, from overseas.

Conclusion

Russia generally exports 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day to the country. America will not be able to cover that much of volumes of oil. So, one is getting the sense that Trump is simply trying to show that he has won these trade negotiations and the deal has been concluded entirely in line with US demands,” he said. Russian oil had made up hardly 0.2 per cent of all crude oil that India imported till 2021.

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, became the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude after Western countries shunned Moscow following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. India’s import of Russian crude oil dropped to around 1.1 million barrels per day in the first three weeks of January. It has dropped from an average of 1.21 million bpd in the previous month. It was over 2 million bpd imports in mid-2025, according to data from real-time analytics company Kpler.

Some people familiar with the Moscow think-tank said that since India stepped up its purchase of Russian oil after the West imposed sanctions over the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions and pressure have at times affected volumes. We have seen several occasions when the supplies fluctuated because of sanctions but this has always been temporary. Russia remains a steady and reliable energy supplier and it wouldn’t make economic sense for India to completely stop purchases.” Falcon Freight, based in Delhi with 25+ years of experience, offers end-to-end import-export solutions, including customs clearance, freight forwarding (air/sea), and product sourcing, particularly from China and the UAE. They also specialise in handling FCL/LCL, providing, bonded warehousing, and regulatory support (IEC, FSSAI, BIS). Contact via email at [email protected] or phone at +91-9311595648 for 24/7 support.

FaQ's

How has the US agreement impacted India’s imports of Russian crude oil?

The US agreement and sanctions on major Russian oil companies have led to a noticeable decline in India’s imports of Russian crude. Imports dropped significantly in late 2025 as companies adjusted to compliance deadlines and global trade pressures.

Can India completely stop importing Russian crude oil?

No, a complete halt is unlikely. Russian crude offers cost advantages and suitable grades for Indian refineries. Replacing it entirely with US or Venezuelan oil is challenging due to differences in quality, volume, and pricing.

Why are US crude oil imports to India increasing?

US crude imports are rising due to geopolitical shifts, trade negotiations, and diversification strategies by India to ensure energy security. Increased imports also align with strengthening trade relations between India and the US.

What challenges does India face in shifting from Russian to US oil?

Key challenges include higher transportation costs, longer shipping routes, differences in crude oil quality (light vs heavy), and the need for blending. Additionally, the US may not be able to match the volume supplied by Russia.

Procedure to Apply for an AD Code

US Agreement Impact on Russian Crude

US Imports Increase Fiscal Profit Margins

Is Russian Crude better than US’ Venezuelan oil

Conclusion

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